Our most recent rating of Republican presidential contenders features a top tier of three notably different candidates: A Midwestern governor (Scott Walker) who is known best by the activists who will help decide the nomination; a leading national figure (Chris Christie) who has irked conservatives; and a firebrand senator (Rand Paul) with devoted supporters who would shake up the party’s platform and, perhaps, identity.
Chart 1: Updated Crystal Ball Republican presidential rankings
| First Tier | ||||
| Candidate | Key Advantages | Key Disadvantages | Since Last Update | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 | Scott Walker Governor, WI | •Midwest GOP gov. in Obama state •Heroic conservative credentials •Shown political durability |
•Too bland? Next Pawlenty?
•Might not deliver home state •Would highly motivate left/labor | – |
 | Chris ChristieGovernor, NJ | •Dynamic speaker •Shown ability to pursue conservative agenda in Blue state •Less is more — the future slogan of a svelte Chris Christie? | •Superstorm Sandy fallout •Not conservative enough for base? •Loose cannon | ↑ |
 | Rand Paul Senator, KY | •Tea Party favorite •Strong support from libertarian GOP wing •National ID and fundraising network | •Too libertarian? •Association with out-of-mainstream father •Too dovish/eclectic for GOP tastes? | ↑ |
| Second Tier | ||||
 | Marco Rubio Senator, FL | •Hispanic •Dynamic speaker and politician •From most electorally valuable swing state | •Future tough votes in Senate; has and will have federal record •Vetting issues regarding family •Could he really deliver more Hispanic votes? | ↓ |
 | Ted Cruz Senator, TX | •Tea Party favorite •Texas fundraising •Conservative voting record | •Too extreme? •Disliked on both sides of the Senate aisle •Eligibility questions | ↑ |
 | Rick Santorum Fmr. Senator, PA | •Strong support from social conservatives •2nd place finisher in ‘12 – next in line? •Bring around primary track | •Too conservative for general election? •Lost last Senate race by 17% •Foot-in-mouth troubles | ↑ |
| Third Tier | ||||
 | Bobby Jindal Governor, LA | •Brings diversity •Southerner in Southern party •Extensive state/fed. experience | •Controversial governorship •Not nationally vetted •Not a dynamic speaker | ↓ |
 | Paul Ryan Representative, WI | •2012 VP candidate – next in line? •General election experience •Strong conservative record | •May not want to run •Couldn’t help Romney carry WI •Not a dynamic campaigner | ↓ |
 | Rick Perry Governor, TX | •Strong conservative credentials •Texas fundraising •Extensive executive experience | •Ran very poor 2012 race •”Oops,” we forgot the rest | – |
| Wild Card? | ||||
 | John Kasich Governor, OH | •Swing state •Long conservative record •Ohio’s unemployment below national average | •Supports Medicaid expansion •Legislative resistance to budget •Abrasive personality | – |
No comments:
Post a Comment